Thanks to modern technology, we can now bet on football while the game is happening. Here are some tips to help you get the most value from your in-game live betting NFL picks.
It’s true. Live betting (in-game) has grown by leaps and bounds since it was introduced in the Aughts. You can bet on which team will win the game, with the NFL odds getting updated after every play. Or you can bet on the outcome of the next play itself. Will it be a run? A pass? Will that pass be completed? All of these wagers are yours for the taking – but some are better than others.
Betting on the NFL used to be simple – just fly to Vegas, put your money down, and enjoy the game. Those were the days. Now we have the internet, which means we can bet from the comfort of our own homes, or while grocery shopping, or pretty much anytime we want. We can even bet during the game. What what?!
Live At Soldier Field
Before we even get into the finer points of NFL live betting, we need to talk bankroll management. Keeping track of the number of bets you make, and their results, is just good business. It gets harder to keep track when you’re in the heat of the action. You could easily end up betting far more money on just one game than your bankroll can handle, increasing your chances of going busto. Make sure to pay at least some attention to your cash flow while you’re getting in the game flow.
Now let’s talk about live betting itself. The safest, least exotic wagers you’ll make in-game are the ones closest to the standard point spread, total and moneyline bets. The first example we gave earlier falls under this category. Betting live on who will win ATS isn’t all that different from betting on second-half (2H) lines, or fourth-quarter (4Q) lines for that matter.
Thanks to all this technology, some media outlets will run live win expectations for each team alongside their live scores. You can take those percentages and use our SBR Betting Odds Converter to see how they compare to the moneyline odds at your preferred sportsbooks. We also have a Spread/ML Converter to give a rough estimate of what a “fair” point spread should look like.
As you divide a football game into smaller chunks to bet on, the degree of difficulty goes up. Betting on the results of a single series, or especially a single play requires more football knowledge than betting on the full game. But if you’re willing to do your homework, you can take advantage of the betting public and find some bargains on the NFL odds board.
First, understand what most recreational bettors fail to accept: There’s a lot of randomness built into football. That’s the way the prolate spheroid bounces. Plays get muffed all the time, and most casual fans overreact to these common mistakes. If a throw goes incomplete, don’t get fooled into thinking the next throw is significantly more likely to miss. In the same vein, a team might run the ball four times in a row, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should bet on the fifth play being a running play. The odds might not be worth it anymore, not after all those casual fans have already made that bet. When they zig, you might want to zag and make a contrarian bet at an improved price.
A little football savvy can give you an even bigger leg up on the competition. If you’ve studied the teams in question and the plays they tend to call, you can anticipate what may happen next, depending on the in-game situation. Is it 4th-and-1 in the middle of the field during a close game? Some coaches go for it here more often than others; Bill O’Brien and the Houston Texans have been particularly aggressive. The more of these tendencies you can identify, the more live betting opportunities you’ll see – and the more money you can make.