We’ve made it through the first month of the NFL season, and things are starting to make more sense. However, Las Vegas lines are also starting to catch up to who is good and who is bad. That should make this week’s picks very interesting.
Last week, the NFL was nuts. It was one of the most stressful weeks for bettors in recent NFL history. Just think about this: the Vikings blew the last drive to give the Rams the win, the Falcons blew their lead in the last seconds to Andy Dalton, the Lions allowed a last second field goal, the Browns blew a big league to lose to the Raiders in overtime, the Colts made a major comeback just to make a stupid decision that cost them the game, and the Chiefs struggled to win, but miss the spread by half a point.
That’s the NFL. This is the NFL Paul Tagliabue was dreaming of when he was NFL commissioner. The NFL seems closer to the anyone can win at any time league. When the Buffalo Bills can blow out the Minnesota Vikings, that makes betting hard.
However, we’ve made it to October. Except for the occasional quarterback injury, many of these matchups go exactly as we hope. That doesn’t mean there aren’t surprises, Vegas has to make money.
With that said, Vegas has some insane lines this week. How many blowouts can actually happen? You have to read on to find out. Without further ado, here’s this week’s picks against the spread.
Last week: 5-8-2
This season: 23-35-2
As usual, we use the odds provided by Westgate.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-10)
What a difference a week makes. The New England Patriots looked like vintage Pats with the severe unraveling of the Miami Dolphins. The team was running on all cylinders, controlling Miami in offense, defense and special teams. It showed the claims that the Patriots dynasty was “over” were short sighted.
Still, how are you going to give them 10 points against this Colts team? Yes, they are 1-3, but they are coming off a close loss to the Texans where one decision in overtime was the difference between another NFL tie and the Colts losing ground in the AFC South.
There’s one factor that could turn this line, Frank Reich was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles made Bill Belichick’s defense look inept in the Super Bowl. The Patriots legit could not stop them. That could be a reason the Patriots curmudgeon head coach wants to run up the score.
Also, Andrew Luck’s best option T.Y. Hilton likely won’t play. Actually, I think I’ve talked myself into this one. This is a ton of points, but Belichick is out for blood.
New England 32, Indianapolis 14